Friday, December 17, 2010
Online Sales Tax
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Reality Check on The Housing Crisis
Monday, September 20, 2010
The Argument for Cram Down
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Anti-Mulsim Hysteria
Monday, July 26, 2010
Elizabeth Warren MUST head CFPB
Tell me, what is t...he difference between a member of congress of congress selling votes to a lobby and Gov. Blagojevich selling a senate seat?
Read this article from the NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/26/business/26warren.html?ref=politics
Elizabeth Warren has YOUR back... now return the favor... get after your member of congress to support her nomination...
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Elizabeth Warren MUST head The Consumer Protection Agency
YouTube her... watch the dozens of interviews... LISTEN to her words... Elizabeth Warren is the ONLY person in DC actually doing the peoples business, she NEEDS to be President... which bodes the question... Is the president afraid of her too; and will not give her a better stage?
Do we get the "change we can believe in", or is it simply whatever Wall Street wants Wall Street gets...
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Credit Scoring for Wall Street Investments
The recent Goldman Sachs revelations are to say the least troublesome. The position taken by the Wall Street Investment Banks that the trader’s duped, were sophisticated buyers that ought to have done their own due diligence, exposes an unacceptable arrogance. The sale of the Mortgage Backed Securities that brought the financial world to its knees was based on that very same premise… caveat emptor. You make your own investment decision, but we are going to hide and disguise the facts. Further, with each passing day, and revelation, it is becoming clearer that my charge of a vast conspiracy or at the very least misrepresentation by the Wall Street banks in cobbling together and passing off as investment grade, these fraudulent and extremely dangerous products; “guaranteed” by the equally bogus Credit Default Swap (CDS) A.I.G mortgage insurance policies.
In this mid-term election season, congress is going through its usual and customary charade of asking “tough” questions for the media and electorate, and then turning around and asking the
We need, and want our investment banks, and Wall Street brokerages to offer products that will generate income. Yes, these will always be risk based offerings. By their very nature this will be the case. However, in this computer age, but there MUST be openness, and without the subterfuge that has been the usual and customary business practice of the markets. Had the markets implemented the exact same underwriting criteria that are used in approving real estate loans, this entire economic meltdown probably could not have occurred?
Some 20 plus years ago Fair Isaac's created FICO risk/credit scoring. Each of us has a credit report derived from a scoring model and maintained by the three credit repositories. Borrower’s who have demonstrated strong credit worthiness are rewarded with the highest credit scores, and receive interest rate “bonuses.” EVERY mortgage originator hangs their hat on these scores; and then factor in loan to value as the deciding factor in approving each loan. History has proven that the default rate is directly related to higher the credit scores, and the lower the loan to value. The higher the score, the lower the loan to value, the lower the defaults rate. The converse is true, credit scores under 680 and loan to values exceeding 90%, yield a greater default rate.
A Mortgage Backed Security is, in effect a mutual fund comprised of real estate mortgage loans. The MBS must have an AAA or higher rating to qualify as investment grade sufficient to be offered to pension plans. Insofar as every loan placed in the pools already has credit scoring and a loan to value, the mathematical formula to arrive at a credit score for each MBS is quite simple to achieve.
Originators would be required to enter every credit score and loan to value for each loan into a data base… PRIOR to selling any loan into the secondary markets. Every new entry will result in a new score for the pool. Set a minimum “Investment FICO” score, say 800, to be a minimum for an AAA+ rating, 790 for AAA, 780 for AAA- and so on. Further, an MBS cannot be comprised of loans originated from any single source, further eliminating the chance for collusion. As an additional safeguard, originators MUST be required to either retain a position in every loan sold, or provide lender paid mortgage insurance in every loan sold into the markets. The originator made the loan,and must be required to retain a level of risk. Full transparency as to the quality of the loans in each pool would be guaranteed. This method would still allow a Wall Street bank to cobble together whatever garbage it chooses into lower grade loans into a below investment grade marketable security. No regulations for the Wall Street Banks, no looking over their shoulders, winking at a worthless, inept SEC.
My method would far more open… caveat emptor would still be the name of the game… however, the buyer, with proper advance “warning” would then be in the position to make an informed business decision. Congress has proven to be both incapable and unwilling to implement meaningful Wall Street regulation. The SEC has proven to be nothing more than a federal bureau designed to pay lip service to the public.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
And the bleeding goes on...
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
HAMP will miss its numbers
Sunday, March 21, 2010
The Fraud of the House Health Care ...vote
November 2, 2010 cannot get her fast enough... but will you put down the remote control and at least send in an absentee ballot... naaaahhhhh ... easier to send the same clowns back to congress ... you probably really love getting screwed... without getting kissed...
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Throw The Bums Out
Friday, February 5, 2010
The Real Unemployment Numbers
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Haitian Relief... and US Jobs
Friday, January 22, 2010
Housing & Jobs Versus Health Care Reform
As of today lenders are not freely cooperating with homeowners in granting mortgage relief... It simply is not there. Despite everything that has been published in the media... despite all of the administration pronouncements, despite Secretary Geithner’s boast of success, it still is not occurring in anywhere the numbers required to halt this economic disaster. Underwriters are interpreting HUD/FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guidelines as though they are regulation. I have had clients denied consideration because their debt-to-income ratios were too low! The self-employed need not apply.
By allowing the lenders complete tax write off of mortgage related losses the current IRS code encourages excessive non-cooperation! Despite HAMP and HUD guidelines, lenders not providing adequate relief; and then are compounding the economic crisis by demanding extended delinquency before even considering assistance, often seven or more months, thereby making it virtually impossible for the homeowner to save their home when a rejection is delivered. This required delinquency lowers credit scores by 150-180 points, followed by credit card issuers lowering credit lines to a level that causes an additional credit score "hit" of 30-40 points PER CARD! This further impedes the economic recovery by stemming consumer spending. In a matter of as short as 90 days, a superlative credit score of 800 can and will be driven down to the low-mid 500’s! Universal default was not covered in the recent credit card reforms. As onerous as the 30% interest rate may be, lowering credit lines to a level where the balances break the “75% Rule” is far more egregious.
Recently, in seeking relief for a client, after finding reluctance to assist in the process, I commented on the “presidents kinder gentler” approach for loan modification, only to receive the following quote from the representative at US Bank..."We don't care what the president has to say... he has his programs and we have ours..."
In order to provide the “incentive” for lenders to understand the harm that they are continuing to cause the nation, I suggest that the IRS tax code be amended to a) provide a 125% tax incentive* for each loan modified; and b) eliminated the tax write off on any loan unless it is verified that a proper, diligent effort to modify a loan was attempted by the IRS. Documentation would be required; and verified from both the lender and the homeowner or representative prior to taking any write down. The very nature of this procedure would be such that the lender would then be forced to forgo the write off; and then after the loss has been properly verified** seek the tax credit. The simple fact that the lender would be forced to "advance" millions in taxes; and then seek a refund/credit would act as a motivation to induce more cooperation.
As for the modification of the loan, the cause for the high recurrence of defaults has generally been the method employed, now compounded by the unemployment factor.
My proposal for modification is:
a. Modify or amend EESA to require that any holder of any note, acquired directly or indirectly, secured by 1-4 unit residential real estate shall be required to offer reasonable loan modification
1. The existing loan balance. If need be partially deferred.
2. 50 year amortization.
3. Either a 5/5 ARM, with the entry rate being the lesser of the yield of the then current 10 year treasury bill, or 4%,or
4. 50 year fixed rate loan set at 1% over the 5/5 rate.
5. Loans already in default/foreclosure to carry a forbearance agreement.
6. Homeowner waives any reduction in real estate taxes, thereby stabilizing the state and local tax revenues.
7. In the instance of an unemployed homeowner, up to one year of payments to be deferred, and added to the loan balance.
8. NO loan qualifying.
These people are in the homes, everyone gains from keeping them there. This plan will calm down the real estate markets, stabilize neighborhoods, and through this method of modification infuse well over $150 million back into the economy. As you are aware, 100% of the WaMu, Wachovia and Downey Savings loan portfolios are comprised of Option (negative) loans and their variations. Due to the free fall in values, the several million of this loan product are impossible to refinance, leaving only modification as the only answer. Modifications that even when successful, are taking an excruciating length of time to complete.
As noted there is no incentive for lender cooperation; and to the contrary, the “system” encourages the lenders denial of providing relief.
Without fast, effective loan modification the housing crisis will continue to accumulate additional distressed properties in numbers that will demand no less than another 3-5 years to work through. Wall Street may very well be able to survive, and indeed prosper through that timeline, but those of us down here, can not.
* i.E., for a modification resulting in a $300,000 write down, the tax credit
For the loss would be $375,000.
** Detailed verification and disclosures to be documented
Thursday, January 21, 2010
The Massachussetts Election
I believe that in order to direct our attention away from the miserably failed economic policies of Chairman Bernanke and Secretary Geithner, Mr. Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid pushed the health care "plan" as a misdirect ploy. The housing crisis IS THE ROOT CAUSE of this entire catastrophe. From first hand experience in attempting loan modifications for clients, I can attest that none one of the programs currently in place has a chance in hell of effecting the relief that is required. Secretary Geithner boasts of aiding some 375,000 homeowners... a grossly inflated number... but even so, at the present rate, when this ends no less than 3-5 years from now we ultimately will have 20-25 MILLION homeowners needing assistance, what good is even his number!!! Simple fact, In the largest markets,every home has been negatively impacted by the foreclosures and short sales.
President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid, properly address the housing and jobs disasters... NOTHING is more important to Americans... then talk to us about reforming health care... We may say that we support this issue, or that issue... but we always vote with one hand on our wallets... that ladies and gentlemen is politics 101!
It's still the foreclosures stupid.... it's the foreclosures...
The NY Times Editorial: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/21/opinion/21thur1.html?ref=todayspaper
The Democratic Party has rarely, if ever, been a cohesive group... but this is turning out to be a real Charlie Foxtrot..... Charlie Foxtrot... Charlie Foxtrot
Saturday, January 2, 2010
More Media and Government Lies
Go back and check the time line of the housing crisis… at the exact same time that the first rate adjustment hit the sub-prime loans, pump prices leapt to the $4 range… People simply could not afford to get out of bed and commute to work… and there they were, and still are, the Cavuto's, Cramer's, Burnett's, Kudlow's, Wall Street Journal's, CNBC's, FBN's, CNN's all doing Wall Streets bidding... the truth be damned, have to keep those advertising dollars flowing...
This crisis will not end until there is rapid, make sense (for both lender and borrower) loan modification is in place… at present millions of the self employed are being denied any form of relief… Loan modification still demands that the homeowner be no less than sixty days past due, and takes five to seven months. Even when completed, the modification provided is very often a prescription for failure, causing the high recurrence of default figures. The residential crisis IS the root cause of the impending commercial real estate crash… consumers are not shopping in anywhere near the numbers required to provide the stimulus for businesses to recreate jobs… stores and businesses (many financed by CIT) close there doors… vacant retail and office space brings in how much rent???….
The “Great Depression” started on Wall Street, and ended fourteen years later on the deck of the USS Missouri… This crisis, caused by the actions of Wall Street, encouraged and enabled by congress, and rooted on by the media has its roots in the residential neighborhoods of Stockton, Riverside, Las Vegas, Detroit and countless cities across the county… and MUST end first where it began...The cures that have been employed to date, The Stimulus, TARP, EESA are all akin to going to the hospital with a heart attack, and being treated for an ingrown toenail… IT’S THE FORECLOSURES STUPID…. IT’S THE FORECLOSURES…