Monday, April 13, 2020

Covid-19 on the USS Theodore Roosevelt

Looks like I need to shed further light on the issues surrounding the USS Theodore Roosevelt...

Due to the very nature of its mission our naval services have been strategically placed as the nation's front line force in readiness. These forces are usually  the first to react to international crises and provide aid in natural disasters.  In no small way they are our defacto  ambassadors at large... Making countless good will stops at ports of call... Our sailors and Marines being good will ambassadors while on shore leave, interacting with the locals of the host nation... They go a long way cementing the good relationships needed to expand commercial relationships.

This was the instance when The Big Stick and its battle group recently docked at Danang, Vietnam. It is reasonable to assume that crew member's contracted covid-19 while ashore...

The most dangerous working environment on planet earth is on an aircraft carrier flight deck... We ask these men and women to stand in harms way, doing the nation's bidding... To do so demand split second timing in a very well choreographed atmosphere, fraught with danger... Therefore they must remain mentally and physically sharp.

For those who have held a command position, either commissioned or NCO, you understand your responsibility to see to the welfare of your command... The evidence is reasonably clear that once the disease raised its ugly head Captain Crozier did just that... His requests for immediate test kits and assistance in quarantining those infected went unanswered... This ship has since seen over 600 testing positive... 8 with the disease and now one death...

In no small way, the reason why our military has performed so well in combat is that our command procedures encourage field commanders to take the initiative... Vary from plans to meet the existing conditions... It is obvious that Captain Crozier did just that... He is now tested positive with the disease, contracted while on his ship... Wishing him a speedy recovery...

Sunday, April 12, 2020

The covid-19 is the best argument for universal health care.


The data coming out of this pandemic points light on the disparities the nation has with health care.

All minorities, in particular American Indians and African Americans are being infected and dying in numbers disproportionate to their numbers in relation to their percent of the population... We know that infection and death from this plague is tied directly to underlying health issues... Data also proves that these minorities or more likely to have asthma, diabetes, obesity along with other underlying lifestyle problems... Compounding this, is they are also they are the highest percentage of the uninsured...  It is also well known that the absolute number one reason why people don't seek out regular medical care is the cost.

Thus, we have a large segment of our population, already in problematic health, being exposed to the Coronavirus... Not seeking care and in turn exposing exponentially more people.

Setting aside the utter failure of the Trump Administration in facing this crisis early on...as is could have and should have... With universal health care, millions more may have been treated far sooner... Flattening the curve sooner and allowing us to return to our, likely changed forever, daily lives...

There are numerous ways of proving the coverage we are all entitled to...Addressing the shortcomings of the ACA, in particular the penalty for being uninsured,  would be the quickest and easiest method... However, Medicare for can, with everyone paying into the system, be made to work and at a reasonable cost for employees, businesses, Healthcare industry and government...

For those opposed to providing Healthcare for all... In the end allowing the  over 27 million Americans to be without Healthcare ends up costing us all deeply... In the instance of covid-19... Allocating $180 billion of the $2 trillion bail out, or almost $6.7 million per each of the 27 million uninsured!!!

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Pre-position Medical Equipment

The military does an excellent job in assessing the international political situation and then amassing and prepositioning stockpiles of equipment at offshore bases. Then, should the should the need arise, there is little or no lag time getting troops and equipment into action. In addition the several branches of the Armed Forces maintain domestic supply depots. The Defense Supply Agency  (https://www.dla.mil maintains numerous depots in the contiguous 48 states. This is where we drew material for worldwide aid assisting in relief for worldwide, devastating natural disasters.

The coronavirus has clearly demonstrated that the country, operating in a for profit medical system is utterly unprepared to meet the crisis of a medical pandemic of this magnitude. By its very nature no for profit business ever, ever, buys well ahead of its immediate needs, instead relying on suppliers to rapidly meet any new demand. Manufacturers do the same. They analyze their current orders, and input for possible reorders, manufacturing on that basis. But none had anticipated this need and thus only had inventories on hand to meet the then current requirements. Obviously, this was an international impossibility with the suppliers instantly overburdened and unable to meet demands. There is always, and always will be, a lag time between orders, manufacturing and delivery. 

I'm of the belief that FEMA should take that lead and do the same with critical medical supplies, ie. ventilators, masks and hazmat suits at several, storing these supplies in several regional military depots. I suggest that new secure temperature controlled warehouses be constructed specifically for this purpose. Again, our military is expert in this this area, thus no new agency is required. Of course this assumes that congress can restrain itself!!! Once we have this crisis past us, FEMA ought to repurchase the thousands of excess ventilators, millions of unused masks and hazmat suits from the states, and store them in these new facilities. Excellent temporary structures could be in place pending construction of permanent warehouses. In doing so the federal government would pour millions of dollars back into the states, enabling them to have the cash flow to meet their respective needs.  

Now, for my political statement... All of this would may very well have been avoided, lives saved, had the president taken to heart the warnings Lucian Borio in 2018, head of National Security Council global health security team. Instead he not only fired her, AND her staff, but to this day has yet to replace the staff with scientifically capable
people. Deny it as he may, patting himself on the back, the result of this pandemic in the United States, rests on his shoulders. Time lines and dozens of videos of him denying any responsibility, and instead blaming it on his predecessor don't lie and cannot be dismissed. This is all of the evidence any logically thinking person requires as evidence. 

Thursday, February 15, 2018

In the wake of yesterdays massacre right wing, NRA bought and paid for members of congress... this means you Senator Rubio, R-FL, the mantra is "this is not the time to act, we need to gather all of the data"... Senator Rubio... the ONLY data you require is more than $3.5 MILLION in blood money you have taken from the NRA, and the number 17... 17 more dead because of your lack of conscience and moral character...

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Some Things Remain the Same

Two thousand years ago a young Jewish man from Nazareth in the Roman province of Judea saw great inequities within the Jewish temple. He saw the Rabbi's and Priests, in return for payment, currying special favors on the wealthy...who were forgiven their sins and provided special favors. He and his followers saw great wrongs, temple laws were framed to benefit the rich, and wished to correct these evils and return the temple to serving the masses. He was not seeking to break away from Judaism, but merely see the temple do the right thing. He sought equality for all in the eyes of the temple. He was beaten down by the wealthy and temple elders seeking to retain the status quo.

Fast forward to the end of the 15th century and a young German monk saw great inequities with the Roman Catholic Church. The wealthy were able to buy indulgences from the church. In return for these payments the sins of the rich were erased.  There were great wrongs, church laws were framed to benefit the rich. He and his followers wished to correct these evils and return the church to serving the masses. He was not seeking to break away from the church, but merely see it do the right thing, to provide equality for all in the eyes of the church. He too was beaten down by the wealthy and church elders seeking to retain the status quo.

Fast forward once again to the mid-20th century and a young Black man came forth and saw great inequities emanating from the temple on Capitol Hill. He saw great inequities and wished to see them removed. He was not seeking to tear down the system, but instead see it live up to its promise of equality for all. He saw the elders (congress), in return for payment, denying their moral promiseof serving the people, crafting laws currying favors benefiting primarily only the wealthy. He too was beaten down by the wealthy and "church elders" seeking to retain the status quo.

Over the centuries, when armies went into battle it was a great honor to carry the flag, or guidon and be the vanguard into the fight... as the enemy sought to capture the guidon, it took great courage to be the bearer of the guidon... should he fall in battle great courage was required for the next soldier to pick up that guidon and carry on into the fight.

Jesus of Nazareth, Martin Luther and Martin Luther King,Jr. were the guidon bearers of their time, none living to see results of their work... which in no small way is still a work in progress. In no small way all were civil  rights proponents. The work of Dr. King was and is a far greater call for far more than racial equality. His was a call for the opportunity to prosper within the system that has brought greatness to this country.

But we are missing one critical element... today we have no guidon bearer leading the way...

Friday, March 16, 2012

Rising Gas Prices

FACT, The United States, is a net EXPORTER of refined fuel products! If Natural Gas and Electricity are deemed so essential to life and our economy; and as such are regulated as utilities... what then are gasoline and diesel fuel, which have an equal effect on our lives... chopped liver!!!  WHY is it legal for the petroleum industry to EXPORT refined gasoline thereby (artificially) driving up prices... while at the same time receiving billions in tax breaks... and before anyone in this throws it back at the Oval Office... per the constitution, it is the responsibility of Congress to enact the legislation required to regulate an industry... this is nothing new... this situation of putting profits ahead of the country is as old as Wall Street... shame on our do nothing congress, more concerned with campaign contributions and their jobs, then doing what we the people sent them there to do... this stigma lays at the feet of both parties... the "prooooogresssives" as well as the TEA Party... shame on the lot of you... Gas and Electricity are deemed essential to life and our economy; and as such are regulated as utilities... what then are gas and diesel which have an equal effect on our lives... chopped liver!!! WHY is it legal for the petroleum industry to EXPORT refined gasoline thereby (artificially) driving up prices... while at the same time receiving billions in tax breaks... and before anyone in this tread throws it back at the Oval Office... per the constitution, it is the responsibility of Congress to enact the legislation required to regulate an industry... this is nothing new... this situation of putting profits ahead of the country is as old as Wall Street... shame on our do nothing congress, more concerned with campaign contributions and there jobs, then do what we the people sent them there to do... this stigma lays at the feet of both parties... the "prooooogresssives" as well as the TEA Party... shame on the lot of you...


I have no problem with corporations earning good profits... I have no problem with exporting EXCESS refined products... excess meaning that such exports have zero negative impact on domestic prices... with the exception of national emergencies there would be NO exceptions to this rule

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Stan Brody ... As I see it: Real Estate Stabilization Act

Stan Brody ... As I see it: Real Estate Stabilization Act

Real Estate Stabilization Act

The proposed Real Estate Stabilization Act of 2011 (RESA 2011) is a tri-party collaborative proposal mandating cooperation from lenders, government and homeowners that will stabilize the real estate markets, enabling a full economic recovery. This presentation represents the short form plan.

Overview
Legislation to require the holder of any note or portion thereof, said holder having received funds through EESA, TARP or any other relief/economic stabilization program, secured by 1-4 unit residential housing; the beneficial interest thereof obtained in any manner including, but not limited to origination, purchase in the secondary markets or acquisition of another institution, shall be required to offer loan modification.
Statement of Facts
Since the onset of the economic crisis, in California alone there have been over 3.5 million REO re-sales and Short Sales, with the resulting loss in real estate taxes exceeding $9 Billion (the projected deficit being $9.25 Billion). In addition there are another 2.5-3 million homes with negative equity; plus some 400,000 bank owned vacant properties that have yet to impact the real estate tax base. As the crisis that the states find themselves is caused by a banking crisis, and thus under federal regulation, they have no direct control over their financial destiny. The only options available, cost cutting, mostly through lay-offs and curtailing of services are by their very nature counter productive, actually worsening the downturn. Using the current FHA/HUD actuarial of 4% appreciation for the next 20 years, left unchecked, the real estate crisis will prevent an overall recovery until, at the earliest, 2022.
Lender Contribution
1. Existing mortgage to be written down to the current fair market value of the property

2. New mortgage loan to be written 5 year reset with a 50 year amortization.

3. Initial interest rate to be the lesser of 4% or 1 % over the

     current yield of the 10 year treasury note, with an adjustment margin of 2.5%.

4. Rate cap each 5 year period shall be 2%+/-, with a 5% lifetime cap.

5. The note shall be assumable and carry no pre-payment penalty.

6. No traditional debt-to-ratio qualifying.

7. In instances where the homeowner is currently unemployed, 1 year Principal-Interest to be calculated and added to the principal amount due. However, borrower to fund the tax a insurance escrow account.


Federal Government
Contribution

1.  Employing current loan-loss guaranty formulae, lender to be reimbursed for loan write down to 80% of the original principle, plus any accruals.

2.  Lender to receive additional tax incentives to offset the write down.

3. Lender reimbursement to be treated as a loan to the homeowner; and repaid through the waiver of the mortgage interest deduction.
5. On a dollar for dollar basis, lenders to be relieved of loan loss requirements for all modified loans. Caveat being that loans must be made for the easing. "Lend it or Lose it".

Homeowner Contribution

1. Waive the mortgage interest write off on federal and state tax returns.
2. In the instance of an existing foreclosure, a forbearance agreement to included with the note, and
recording documents.
3. Waive any reduction in real estate taxes
4. Establish an escrow account for taxes and insurance with the lender at 0%.
5. Should the homeowner fail to fund the escrow account, the lender shall be relieved of the terms of
RESA; and free to proceed with alternative methods of relief including deed in lieu,
foreclosure or short sale.
6. Government contribution to be a personal indebtedness. May be retired through the sale of the
subject property and/or the mortgage interest waiver in #1 above


Benefits

1.Stabilizes the housing markets, halting the current free fall in values.
2.Halts the dramatic erosion of the real estate tax base, thereby aiding in the financial recovery of the various states, and local governments.
3. Retains citizens in their homes.
4. Prevents the erosion of neighborhoods and communities.
5. Provides the confidence required for consumer spending needed to fuel the recovery.
6. Government contribution (stimulus) will result in greater overall confidence and consumer spending thereby fueling the recovery.





Monday, March 14, 2011

Uprising In Washington

Has the time arrived for every person in the US who has or is going through the months long, excruciatingly abusive and demeaning process of attempting a loan modification... been lied to by numerous bank representatives... been passed around from one agent to the next... to the next...always getting the same treatment...even with proof of delivery is provided, has repeatedly been told that documents that have been sent were not sent... been told that the bank will not even consider a loan modification when you are current, compelling you to become delinquent, and in default, only to eventually have been rejected due to the Treasury dept. agreement with the banks, allowing them to use the mysterious Net Present Value (NPV)... thereby denying any form of mortgage relief... without which there can be no real truet economic recovery.

The "experts" state that there are some 20,000,000 plus homes underwater in the United States... "We the People" were told that the banks were "too big to fail"; and we bailed them out. These rare the very same banks which are now refusing any form of mortgage relief... without which there can be no real true recovery for the economy... it must be that our congress believes that "We the People" are too small to save...

Perhaps the time has arrived for a peoples mortgage uprising in Washington... Perhaps if a million or millions people protest on the Mall, congress might.... just might correct this massive injustice...

Friday, January 7, 2011

More Wells Fargo Lies


This a letter I wrote to Congresswoman Barbara Lee ,CA 9th, seeking assistance in loan modification for a young couple in her district. For privacy, I have removed their names.... so, the bloodbath and lies continue...

January 7, 2011

Representative Barbara Lee

2444 Rayburn HOB
Washington, D.C. 20515
Via Fax: (202) 225-9817

RE: Ramona Ave., Piedmont, CA 94611

Dear Congresswoman Lee;

I am writing on behalf of the above referenced couple, residents of your district. They purchased the above captioned residence five years ago at the peak of the real estate boom. Using what the mortgage industry refers to as a piggy-bag loan; a first mortgage combined with a second or Home Equity Line Of Credit (HELOC) the home was financed by Wells Fargo Bank. This financing package was structured by the bank’s representative as a 7/1 Fixed ARM first loan, and a 5 year balloon second lien. Frankly, in my almost thirty years in the industry I cannot recall ever having seen this sort of “dangerous” financing funded by a major bank. As it absolutely would require a refinance, this sort of financing arrangement could only be deemed self serving by the bank and broker involved; while at the same time place their client at the complete mercy of the market.

Last September, realizing that the loan was coming due, the (name deleted) contacted me seeking a possible refinance. They have managed their personal financial affairs in a manner that, as parents, would make you and me proud. Credit scores exceed 800, excellent job history, they have some reserves, and easily qualified for the financing required. All payments have been timely. However, as you know, both the property and applicant must “qualify”; and in this instance, due to the real estate crisis, the appraisal was returned at a level not adequate to provide the required Loan-To-Value.; leaving them with only two options, a loan modification or a short sale.

They then contacted Wells Fargo seeking a loan modification in ONLY the term of the loan... they are “OK” with the 7% interest rate... they are NOT seeking a principle write down, ONLY a common sense modification in the term of the loan! A very common sense business approach to this situation, enabling them to keep their home and credit intact; and Wells Fargo to keep a performing asset on their books..

Yet, WFB is virtually refusing to cooperate... refusing to honestly consider making this sensible business decision. To the contrary, as the course that that Wells Fargo is now embarking upon, a course destined to make a shambles of a hard earned credit history.

Despite what the banks are telling members of congress, from my firm’s first hand experience, the lenders are refusing to even consider any loan modification until the homeowner first becomes delinquent. for a minimum of sixty days; an act that reduces a credit score by some 140-180 points! The bank’s analyst is following the industry “MO”, by delaying, losing documents, failing to return calls and or writings; and in general guilty of bad faith dealing. On Monday the 10th of January, their grace period runs out; and the process of destroying this couple’s credit commences.

This past week Wells Fargo issued a press release announcing that it was going to “voluntarily” modify a vast number of the Wachovia/World loans that it had acquired through a purchase from the FDIC. We both know this act was strictly for the media, and to indicate to congress that the management of Wells Fargo wears a white hat as it drives the stage coach! By their very actions, and benefiting from the loan loss guaranties provided by the FDIC insuring the bank a substantial profit (on the backs of those homeowners) this announcement is a pure sham.

I write you, pleading with your office to, in any way, in any manner intercede on behalf of this young couple. They deserve a better fate than that being thrust upon them by a bank, which has, is and will continue earning huge profits in no small part through the generosity of “We the People”.

Thanking you in advance for whatever assistance you may offer, I remain

Very truly yours,

stan signature

Stan Brody

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Reading the Constitution

Interesting... the country is going broke.... millions of us losing their homes... some 18 million of us out of work, and the House is wasting OUR TIME and treasure reading the constitution... a document that each member ought to have been well-informed of before having been elected!!! Had they taken the same approach to reading the legislation that they vote on, we might not be in this financial abyss!!!

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

What Will Congress Do About the Deficit

The mid-term elections are over, resulting in a real shift of power in Washington. Questions are being raised as to how this new "fiscally conservative" congress will address the deficit. Congress is at fault for the financial straights we are in.... by looking the other way and doing their bidding, Congress is a codependent with the banks actions and failures... the same is true of Wall Street... the crime here is that, with the members of congress full cooperation it is the lobbies for these industries who actually lay the groundwork of new legislation that is supposed to "regulate" those very same industries... they are already at work crafting any changes to existing law designed to minimize the effect of that new legislation.

The answer to my question is, as "we the people" have little to say, congress will act in its own best interest (raising campaign contributions) and only reduce the deficit in ways that can only hurt middle America. We the People will get the mookey end of the stick yet again...

Friday, December 17, 2010

Online Sales Tax

There is controversy surrounding the avoidance of sales tax from our on-line purchases. Thanks to the utter failure of congress in dealing with the real estate crisis, the states are in a financial abyss that they have zero control over... It is now acknowledged by the "experts" that real estate values, and along with them, real estate tax revenue, will not again reach 2006 levels before 2022-2025! California alone has experienced over 3,500,000 foreclosures and short sales... with more than double that in "the pipeline"... thus to date, the state has lost over $8,750 Billion in real estate taxes. Thus the states desperately require keeping/collecting whatever sales tax revenue they are due...
A simple national online (only) sales tax, of say 5%, might be in line. The retailer would collect this tax, forwarding them as a separate line item in its already mandated quarterly reporting, to the treasury. The only additional forms being, a simple source of funds record sorted by the first two digits of the zip code identifying which state generated the sale (no specific mailing address allowed). .The treasury would then retain a 1% "collection fee" and forward the balance due to the various states. The various states would be required to accept these taxes as payment in full, waiving the right to seek any differential from the purchaser. These funds would be separate from, and not subject to any other legislation or the whim of congress. Granted, the states will receive less than their normal tax rate, they would also be relieved of the high cost of chasing down and collecting the tax.

We keep hearing that the "rich" ought to pay their fair share of taxes...With an online sales tax, we all pay our fair share of taxes due... at the same time avoiding the hypocrisy of "getting the wealthy"...The online tracking firm, Comscore.com, estimates that there were over one-billion dollars in online sales for cyber-Monday alone! At 5%, this equates to $50 Million in revenue.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Reality Check on The Housing Crisis

The time to damn people "who got in over their heads" passed three years ago... what do you say to the person with an 800 FICO score, worked hard for his or her adult life... still has "7 figures" in a retirement plan, has the Suze Orman "Gold Star" for having been perfect with their finances... and even, in 2005 bought that $500,000 dream home with $200,000 cash down... problem... that home is in Stockton, CA,... Las Vegas... Phoenix, AZ or any number of other hard hit areas... and is now, on a really great day, valued at $175,000?... The simple fact is, the "20%" took down 100% of the real estate markets... "We the People" bailed out the banks and Wall Street... effectively shunting all of the losses onto the homeowners... without a halt to the real estate crisis, the states will continue to sink into an ever deepening financial abyss... this is not just a moral decision... but a common sense business reality...

Monday, September 20, 2010

The Argument for Cram Down

It is a fact that there is a loan loss guaranty protecting banks from residential real estate loan losses... WaMu, Wachovia, Downey and Indymac were either seized or forced into selling to Chase, Wells Fargo, US Bank and OneWest Bank... Each buy/sell agreement contained a loan loss protection condition.

Thus, even though the bank's assets (loan portfolio) was sold in the range of 55-70% on the dollar, the treasury (you and me) guaranteed to cover any losses... based on not the purchase price, but instead 80% of the ORIGINAL loan amount, PLUS any delinquencies, thereby guarantying that the acquiring banks would turn a profit... AND that in the vast majority of instances they would refuse to cooperate in loan modifications... there is far more profit for them... which bodes the questions why not use cram down, forcing the banks to modify loans in principal, rate and term... and still give them the guaranty dollar amount...

Net result to the bank is identical... with the plus to the community of keeping people in their homes... stabilizing real estate values AND most important of all end the hemorrhage in real estate tax revenues... a true win - win compromise...



Sunday, September 12, 2010

Anti-Mulsim Hysteria

To understand just how ignorant, how stupid, how dangerous this anti-Mulsim hysteria (fueled by a media seeking to create the news) one merely needs to look at post WWI Germany and what happened to not only the Jews, but any person "not fitting the mold"... post Civil War United States and what "WE AMERICANS" did to the Irish and Chinese immigrants... how "WE AMERICANS" in the pre-WWI 20th Century... treated the Italian immigrants ("WE AMERICANS" created the slur WOP)... How "WE AMERICANS" ostracized eastern European immigrants and let's not overlook what "WE AMERICANS" did and to some extent continue to do our Black Americans post Civil War... Look what "WE AMERICANS" did to our Japanese Americans during WWII...

What is it with us that without exception, whenever there are economic hardships WE NEED to find someone, some ethnic or religious group that brought this hardship on us...

Understand how important the Muslim society has been to human kind over the centuries...
http://bama.ua.edu/~msa/contrib.html

Monday, July 26, 2010

Elizabeth Warren MUST head CFPB

And now for the stupid, ignorant politics in naming Elizabeth Warren to head up the consumer protection agency that she invented... the question how many of the clowns of congress... Dem and GOP alike "will be bought" off by the Wall Street and Banking lobbies... aka special interests (GOP) or "focus groups" (Dem)...

Tell me, what is t...he difference between a member of congress of congress selling votes to a lobby and Gov. Blagojevich selling a senate seat?

Read this article from the NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/26/business/26warren.html?ref=politics

Elizabeth Warren has YOUR back... now return the favor... get after your member of congress to support her nomination...

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Elizabeth Warren MUST head The Consumer Protection Agency

"We the People" need someone in consumer protection to have our back... write... write... and write again to your members of congress DEMANDING their support of Elizabeth Warren to head up the new agency... Wall Street and the Banks are afraid to death and have their lobbyist working 24/7 opposing her nomination... do you require any better proof that she is "our guy"...

YouTube her... watch the dozens of interviews... LISTEN to her words... Elizabeth Warren is the ONLY person in DC actually doing the peoples business, she NEEDS to be President... which bodes the question... Is the president afraid of her too; and will not give her a better stage?

Do we get the "change we can believe in", or is it simply whatever Wall Street wants Wall Street gets...

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Credit Scoring for Wall Street Investments



The recent Goldman Sachs revelations are to say the least troublesome. The position taken by the Wall Street Investment Banks that the trader’s duped, were sophisticated buyers that ought to have done their own due diligence, exposes an unacceptable arrogance. The sale of the Mortgage Backed Securities that brought the financial world to its knees was based on that very same premise… caveat emptor. You make your own investment decision, but we are going to hide and disguise the facts. Further, with each passing day, and revelation, it is becoming clearer that my charge of a vast conspiracy or at the very least misrepresentation by the Wall Street banks in cobbling together and passing off as investment grade, these fraudulent and extremely dangerous products; “guaranteed” by the equally bogus Credit Default Swap (CDS) A.I.G mortgage insurance policies.


In this mid-term election season, congress is going through its usual and customary charade of asking “tough” questions for the media and electorate, and then turning around and asking the Walls Street bankers for their advice on future regulations of their industry! We had Senator Levin asking soft ball questions of Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs Chairman, and then seeking his advice on crafting legislation!… Does the coyote want the chicken coop gate to swing in, or out!


We need, and want our investment banks, and Wall Street brokerages to offer products that will generate income. Yes, these will always be risk based offerings. By their very nature this will be the case. However, in this computer age, but there MUST be openness, and without the subterfuge that has been the usual and customary business practice of the markets. Had the markets implemented the exact same underwriting criteria that are used in approving real estate loans, this entire economic meltdown probably could not have occurred?


Some 20 plus years ago Fair Isaac's created FICO risk/credit scoring. Each of us has a credit report derived from a scoring model and maintained by the three credit repositories. Borrower’s who have demonstrated strong credit worthiness are rewarded with the highest credit scores, and receive interest rate “bonuses.” EVERY mortgage originator hangs their hat on these scores; and then factor in loan to value as the deciding factor in approving each loan. History has proven that the default rate is directly related to higher the credit scores, and the lower the loan to value. The higher the score, the lower the loan to value, the lower the defaults rate. The converse is true, credit scores under 680 and loan to values exceeding 90%, yield a greater default rate.


A Mortgage Backed Security is, in effect a mutual fund comprised of real estate mortgage loans. The MBS must have an AAA or higher rating to qualify as investment grade sufficient to be offered to pension plans. Insofar as every loan placed in the pools already has credit scoring and a loan to value, the mathematical formula to arrive at a credit score for each MBS is quite simple to achieve.


Originators would be required to enter every credit score and loan to value for each loan into a data base… PRIOR to selling any loan into the secondary markets. Every new entry will result in a new score for the pool. Set a minimum “Investment FICO” score, say 800, to be a minimum for an AAA+ rating, 790 for AAA, 780 for AAA- and so on. Further, an MBS cannot be comprised of loans originated from any single source, further eliminating the chance for collusion. As an additional safeguard, originators MUST be required to either retain a position in every loan sold, or provide lender paid mortgage insurance in every loan sold into the markets. The originator made the loan,and must be required to retain a level of risk. Full transparency as to the quality of the loans in each pool would be guaranteed. This method would still allow a Wall Street bank to cobble together whatever garbage it chooses into lower grade loans into a below investment grade marketable security. No regulations for the Wall Street Banks, no looking over their shoulders, winking at a worthless, inept SEC.


My method would far more open… caveat emptor would still be the name of the game… however, the buyer, with proper advance “warning” would then be in the position to make an informed business decision. Congress has proven to be both incapable and unwilling to implement meaningful Wall Street regulation. The SEC has proven to be nothing more than a federal bureau designed to pay lip service to the public.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

And the bleeding goes on...

There are some 90,000,000 residential housing units in the United States all
of the Wall Street darling "experts"... S&P Case Shiller, RealtyTrac, Trullia, Zillow, etc.
somewhat agree that the number of homes CURRENTLY underwater is 23%... as a
percentage "not awful".... but in a real number it is 20,700,000 homes in trouble...

For the better part of three years I have warned that these very same "experts", who
at that time estimated the number of problem loans to be around 5-8 million, were
off by a factor approaching 100%... I was wrong... by their own numbers, they
are off by about 150%...

AND, based on my no less expert analysis the number actually, currently underwater
or in trouble is closer to 25,000,000... then add that to the number that have already
been foreclosed upon or sold as a short sale, and when this is done we will have run
through over 50,000,000 homes... 50 million families devastated... ah, but Wall Street is
doing just fine...